Ngakhale mu theka lachiwiri la 2021, makampani ena amagalimoto adanenanso kuti vuto la kuchepa kwa chip mu 2022 likhala bwino, koma ma OEM awonjezera kugula komanso malingaliro amasewera wina ndi mnzake, kuphatikiza ndikupereka mphamvu zopangira zida zamagalimoto okhwima. Mabizinesi akadali pagawo lokulitsa luso lopanga, ndipo msika wapadziko lonse lapansi pano ukukhudzidwabe kwambiri ndi kusowa kwa ma cores.
Nthawi yomweyo, ndikusintha kwachangu kwamakampani amagalimoto kupita kumagetsi ndi luntha, makina opanga ma chip asinthanso kwambiri.
1. Ululu wa MCU pansi pa kusowa kwapakati
Tsopano tikayang'ana m'mbuyo pakuchepa kwa ma cores komwe kudayamba kumapeto kwa 2020, kufalikiraku mosakayikira ndikomwe kwayambitsa kusalinganika pakati pa kupezeka ndi kufunikira kwa tchipisi zamagalimoto.Ngakhale kuwunika movutikira pamagwiritsidwe ntchito a tchipisi tapadziko lonse a MCU (microcontroller) kukuwonetsa kuti kuyambira 2019 mpaka 2020, kugawa kwa ma MCU muzinthu zamagetsi zamagetsi kudzakhala 33% ya msika wogwiritsa ntchito kumunsi, koma poyerekeza ndi ofesi yakutali pa intaneti Kufikira kumtunda. okonza ma chip akhudzidwa, makampani opanga ma chip ndi kuyika ndi kuyesa makampani akhudzidwa kwambiri ndi zovuta monga kutseka kwa mliriwu.
Zomera zopanga chip zomwe zili m'mafakitale olimbikira ntchito zidzavutika ndi kusowa kwakukulu kwa anthu ogwira ntchito komanso kusapeza bwino kwachuma mu 2020. Kupanga chip chip kumtunda kwasinthidwa kukhala zofunikira zamakampani amagalimoto, sikunathe kukonzekera bwino kupanga, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta. kuti ma chips aperekedwe mokwanira.M'manja mwa fakitale yamagalimoto, vuto la kusakwanira kopanga magalimoto likuwonekera.
Mu Ogasiti chaka chatha, mbewu ya STMicroelectronics 'Muar ku Muar, Malaysia idakakamizika kutseka mafakitale ena chifukwa cha vuto la mliri watsopano wa korona, ndipo kutsekeka kunapangitsa kuti tchipisi ta Bosch ESP/IPB, VCU, TCU ndi machitidwe ena akukhala m'malo osokonekera kwa nthawi yayitali.
Kuphatikiza apo, mu 2021, masoka achilengedwe otsatizana nawo monga zivomezi ndi moto zipangitsanso opanga ena kulephera kupanga pakanthawi kochepa.Mu February chaka chatha, chivomezicho chinawononga kwambiri kampani ya ku Japan yotchedwa Renesas Electronics, yomwe ndi imodzi mwa makampani akuluakulu ogulitsa tchipisi padziko lonse lapansi.
Kusaganiziridwa molakwika kwa kufunikira kwa tchipisi zamagalimoto ndi makampani amagalimoto, kuphatikiza kuti nsalu zakumtunda zasintha kuchuluka kwa tchipisi m'galimoto kukhala tchipisi togula kuti zitsimikizire mtengo wazinthu, zapangitsa kuti MCU ndi CIS yomwe imadutsana kwambiri pakati pa tchipisi zamagalimoto ndi zinthu zamagetsi zamagetsi.(sensa ya zithunzi za CMOS) ili pachiwopsezo chachikulu.
Kuchokera pamalingaliro aukadaulo, pali mitundu yosachepera 40 ya zida zamagalimoto zamagalimoto zamagalimoto zamagalimoto, ndipo kuchuluka kwa njinga zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi 500-600, zomwe makamaka zimaphatikizapo MCU, ma semiconductors amagetsi (IGBT, MOSFET, etc.), masensa ndi osiyanasiyana. zida za analogi.Magalimoto odziyimira pawokha nawonso Zinthu zingapo monga tchipisi ta ADAS, CIS, AI processors, lidars, ma millimeter-wave radar ndi MEMS zidzagwiritsidwa ntchito.
Malinga ndi kuchuluka kwa magalimoto, omwe akhudzidwa kwambiri ndi vuto la kuchepa kwamtunduwu ndikuti galimoto yachikhalidwe imafunikira tchipisi ta 70 MCU, ndipo MCU yamagalimoto ndi ESP (Electronic Stability Program System) ndi ECU ( Zigawo zazikulu za chipangizo chachikulu chowongolera magalimoto. ).Kutengera chifukwa chachikulu cha kuchepa kwa Haval H6 yoperekedwa ndi Great Wall nthawi zambiri kuyambira chaka chatha monga mwachitsanzo, Great Wall idati kuchepa kwakukulu kwa malonda a H6 m'miyezi yambiri kudachitika chifukwa cha kusakwanira kwa Bosch ESP yomwe idagwiritsa ntchito.Euler Black Cat ndi White Cat yodziwika kale adalengezanso kuyimitsidwa kwakanthawi mu Marichi chaka chino chifukwa chazovuta monga kuchepetsedwa kwa ESP komanso kukwera kwamitengo ya chip.
Chochititsa manyazi, ngakhale kuti mafakitale a auto chip akumanga ndikupangitsa mizere yatsopano yopangira zopyapyala mu 2021, ndikuyesera kusamutsa njira ya tchipisi tagalimoto kupita pamzere wakale wopanga ndi mzere watsopano wa 12-inch mtsogolomo, kuti awonjezere kupanga ndi kupanga. kupeza chuma pamlingo, Komabe, kayendetsedwe ka zida za semiconductor nthawi zambiri kumakhala kopitilira theka la chaka.Kuphatikiza apo, zimatenga nthawi yayitali kuti kusintha kwa mzere wopanga, kutsimikizika kwazinthu ndikukweza mphamvu zopanga, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mphamvu zatsopano zopangira zizigwira ntchito mu 2023-2024..
Ndikoyenera kutchula kuti ngakhale kuti kupanikizika kwakhalapo kwa nthawi yaitali, makampani amagalimoto akuyembekezerabe msika.Ndipo mphamvu yatsopano yopangira tchipisi ikuyenera kuthana ndi vuto lalikulu kwambiri lopanga chip mtsogolo.
2. Nkhondo yatsopano pansi pa luntha lamagetsi
Komabe, kwa makampani amagalimoto, kuthetsa vuto lomwe lilipo la chip kungangothetsa kufunikira kwamsika komwe kulipo komanso kufuna asymmetry.Poyang'anizana ndi kusintha kwa mafakitale amagetsi ndi anzeru, kukakamizidwa kwa tchipisi zamagalimoto kumangowonjezereka mtsogolomo.
Ndi kuchuluka kwa kufunikira kwa magalimoto ophatikizika owongolera zinthu zamagetsi, ndipo panthawi ya kukweza kwa FOTA ndikuyendetsa basi, kuchuluka kwa tchipisi zamagalimoto amagetsi atsopano kwakwezedwa kuchokera ku 500-600 munthawi yamagalimoto amafuta mpaka 1,000 mpaka 1,200.Chiwerengero cha zamoyo chawonjezekanso kuchoka pa 40 kufika pa 150.
Akatswiri ena m'makampani opanga magalimoto adanena kuti m'tsogolomu magalimoto amagetsi apamwamba kwambiri m'tsogolomu, kuchuluka kwa tchipisi tagalimoto imodzi kudzawonjezeka kangapo mpaka zidutswa 3,000, komanso kuchuluka kwa ma semiconductors agalimoto pamtengo wamtengo wapatali. galimoto yonse idzawonjezeka kuchokera ku 4% mu 2019 mpaka 12 mu 2025. %, ndipo ikhoza kuwonjezeka kufika ku 20% ndi 2030. Izi sizikutanthauza kuti mu nthawi ya nzeru zamagetsi, kufunikira kwa tchipisi kwa magalimoto kukuwonjezeka, komanso zikuwonetsa kukwera mwachangu kwavuto laukadaulo komanso mtengo watchipisi wofunikira pamagalimoto.
Mosiyana ndi ma OEM achikhalidwe, pomwe 70% ya tchipisi zamagalimoto amafuta ndi 40-45nm ndipo 25% ndi tchipisi tating'ono pamwamba pa 45nm, gawo la tchipisi munjira ya 40-45nm yamagalimoto amagetsi apamwamba komanso apamwamba pamsika ali ndi yatsika mpaka 25%.45%, pomwe gawo la tchipisi pamwamba pa 45nm ndi 5% yokha.Kuchokera pamalingaliro aukadaulo, tchipisi tating'onoting'ono tapamwamba kwambiri totsika pansi pa 40nm ndi tchipisi tambiri ta 10nm ndi 7nm mosakayikira ndi malo atsopano opikisana nawo munyengo yatsopano yamakampani amagalimoto.
Malinga ndi lipoti la kafukufuku lomwe linatulutsidwa ndi Hushan Capital mu 2019, kuchuluka kwa ma semiconductors amagetsi m'galimoto yonse yakwera kwambiri kuchoka pa 21% munthawi yamagalimoto amafuta mpaka 55%, pomwe tchipisi ta MCU tatsika kuchokera 23% mpaka 11%.
Komabe, kukula kwa tchipisi komwe kamawululidwa ndi opanga osiyanasiyana kumangokhala kokha ku tchipisi tachikhalidwe cha MCU pakadali pano chomwe chimayang'anira injini/chassis/thupi.
Pamagalimoto anzeru amagetsi, tchipisi ta AI zomwe zimayang'anira kuzindikira ndikusakanikirana;ma module amphamvu monga IGBT (insulated gate dual transistor) omwe ali ndi udindo wotembenuza mphamvu;tchipisi ta sensor pakuwunika koyendetsa radar kwakula kwambiri.Izi zitha kukhala zovuta zatsopano za "kusowa kwapakati" zomwe makampani amagalimoto adzakumana nazo mu gawo lotsatira.
Komabe, mu siteji yatsopano, zomwe zimalepheretsa makampani agalimoto sizingakhale vuto la mphamvu zopanga zomwe zimasokonezedwa ndi zinthu zakunja, koma "khosi lokhazikika" la chip loletsedwa ndi mbali yaukadaulo.
Kutengera kufunikira kwa tchipisi ta AI zomwe zimabweretsedwa ndi luntha mwachitsanzo, kuchuluka kwa makompyuta a pulogalamu yoyendetsa galimoto yodziyimira payokha yafika kale pamlingo wa TOPS (machitidwe mabiliyoni pa sekondi imodzi), ndipo mphamvu yamakompyuta yamagalimoto amtundu wa MCU sangathe kukwaniritsa zofunikira zamakompyuta. za magalimoto odziyimira pawokha.Tchipisi za AI monga ma GPU, FPGA, ndi ma ASIC alowa mumsika wamagalimoto.
Mu theka loyamba la chaka chatha, Horizon adalengeza kuti malonda ake amtundu wachitatu, tchipisi ta Journey 5, adatulutsidwa.Malinga ndi zomwe boma likunena, tchipisi ta Journey 5 zili ndi mphamvu yapakompyuta ya 96TOPS, kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kwa 20W, komanso mphamvu yamagetsi ya 4.8TOPS/W..Poyerekeza ndi teknoloji ya 16nm ya FSD (yoyendetsa galimoto yokhayokha) chip yomwe inatulutsidwa ndi Tesla mu 2019, magawo a chipangizo chimodzi chokhala ndi mphamvu ya kompyuta ya 72TOPS, kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu 36W ndi mphamvu yowonjezera mphamvu ya 2TOPS/W zakonzedwa bwino kwambiri.Kukwaniritsa uku kwapindulanso ndi mgwirizano ndi makampani ambiri amagalimoto kuphatikiza SAIC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Chery, ndi Ideal.
Motsogozedwa ndi luntha, kusinthika kwamakampani kwakhala kofulumira kwambiri.Kuyambira ku Tesla's FSD, kukulitsa tchipisi tating'ono ta AI kuli ngati kutsegula bokosi la Pandora.Patangopita Ulendo 5, NVIDIA idatulutsa mwachangu Chip cha Orin chomwe chidzakhala single-chip.Mphamvu yamakompyuta yakwera mpaka 254TOPS.Pankhani ya nkhokwe zaukadaulo, Nvidia adawoneratu chipangizo cha Atlan SoC chokhala ndi mphamvu imodzi yamakompyuta mpaka 1000TOPS kwa anthu chaka chatha.Pakalipano, NVIDIA ili ndi udindo wokhazikika pamsika wa GPU wa tchipisi toyang'anira magalimoto, kukhala ndi gawo la msika la 70% chaka chonse.
Ngakhale kulowa kwa chimphona chachikulu cha mafoni a m'manja cha Huawei mumsika wamagalimoto kwayambitsa mpikisano mumakampani opanga zida zamagalimoto, zimadziwika bwino kuti chifukwa chosokonezedwa ndi zinthu zakunja, Huawei ali ndi luso lopanga zambiri munjira ya 7nm SoC, koma sangathe. Thandizani opanga chip apamwamba.kukwezedwa kwa msika.
Mabungwe ofufuza amalingalira kuti mtengo wanjinga za AI chip ukukwera mwachangu kuchokera ku US $ 100 mu 2019 mpaka US $ 1,000+ pofika 2025;nthawi yomweyo, msika wamagalimoto apanyumba a AI chip nawonso udzakwera kuchokera ku US $ 900 miliyoni mu 2019 mpaka 91 mu 2025. Madola miliyoni miliyoni aku US.Kukula mwachangu kwa kufunikira kwa msika komanso kuwongolera kwaukadaulo kwa tchipisi tapamwamba mosakayikira kupangitsa kuti tsogolo lanzeru lamakampani amgalimoto likhale lovuta kwambiri.
Zofanana ndi zomwe zimafunikira pamsika wa AI chip, IGBT, monga gawo lofunikira la semiconductor (kuphatikiza tchipisi, ma insulating substrates, ma terminals ndi zida zina) mugalimoto yatsopano yamagetsi yokhala ndi chiwongolero chamtengo mpaka 8-10%, ilinso ndi kukhudza kwambiri chitukuko chamtsogolo chamakampani opanga magalimoto.Ngakhale makampani apakhomo monga BYD, Star Semiconductor, ndi Silan Microelectronics ayamba kupereka ma IGBT kumakampani opanga magalimoto apanyumba, pakadali pano, mphamvu yopanga IGBT yamakampani omwe tatchulawa akadali ochepa ndi kukula kwamakampani, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kuphimba kukwera mofulumira magwero atsopano a mphamvu zapakhomo.kukula kwa msika.
Nkhani yabwino ndiyakuti poyang'anizana ndi gawo lotsatira la SiC m'malo mwa IGBTs, makampani aku China sali m'mbuyo pamasanjidwewo, ndipo kukulitsa luso la SiC kupanga ndi kupanga kutengera luso la IGBT R&D posachedwa likuyembekezeka kuthandiza makampani amagalimoto ndi matekinoloje.Opanga amapeza mwayi mu gawo lotsatira la mpikisano.
3. Yunyi Semiconductor, pachimake wanzeru kupanga
Poyang'anizana ndi kusowa kwa tchipisi mumsika wamagalimoto, Yunyi adadzipereka kuthana ndi vuto lazinthu zama semiconductor kwa makasitomala ogulitsa magalimoto.Ngati mukufuna kudziwa za zida za Yunyi Semiconductor ndikufunsa, chonde dinani ulalo:https://www.yunyi-china.net/semiconductor/.
Nthawi yotumiza: Mar-25-2022